It has become commonplace to talk about the church’s decline in Western societies. It is obvious within the church to any parishioner with their eyes open.

But I was still shocked by an official report on the shrinkage in my home diocese of Canberra-Goulburn in Australia.

This is an urban/rural diocese that includes the Australian capital city of Canberra, a city of about 450,000 people in eastern Australia within the Australian Capital Territory.

It is traditionally Catholic, at about 20% in the last Census. This concentration stems from Catholics’ historic attraction to jobs in the government’s public or civil service.

Now, though, the largest group in the city identifies as ‘No Religion’.

A shocking number

What shocked me was that in a Catholic population of about 151,000, the archdiocese reported that ‘data presented to the [archdiocesan] Assembly indicated only about 10,000 or 7 per cent regularly practise their faith ‘.

In fact, 7 per cent is rounded up from 6.62%. That is an astoundingly low number.

Generally, in discussions of church shrinkage in Australia, about 8-10% regular church attendance is the number thrown around. That number is almost comforting compared to 7%.

At 6.62%, regular church attendance (and remember the trend is downwards) becomes highly abnormal by traditional measures.

Measuring a healthy church

The church’s challenges are worrying if this number is an appropriate measure of a healthy church. It may not be, of course.

Measures of so-called regular church attendance may be a very top-down, clerical view of what is healthy. Irregular or even occasional church attendance may better suit the spiritual needs of a much larger group.

Though many cultural/Census Catholics have settled into a pattern of almost no parish church attendance at all.

The Catholic education system is still thriving, which is another indicator to consider. This system is doubling down on its intentional Catholic identity, although only a small minority of students come from families who are regular church attendees.

This makes for some underlying tension.

We know from other data, and from personal observation, that much of this 6.62% is disproportionately elderly and another large segment comes from recent immigrant communities, such as the burgeoning Indian-Australian community in Canberra.

Shrinking or revitalised?

Some view these developments more positively. Recent commentary by Tom Hyland (“The Australian Church: fewer Catholics, but more catholic”, Global Catholic, June 24 2026) suggests the statistics tell two stories about the church: that it is “simultaneously shrinking while being revitalised”.

But are these two elements happening in equal measure? Shrinking may be outstripping revitalisation.

Furthermore, revitalisation may mean different things to different people. For some dedicated to changing and reforming church culture and organisation, revitalisation should not be measured only by church attendance.

A demographic reality

But the data on a shrinking church cannot be glossed over. However it is interpreted, it is a demographic phenomenon which must be addressed

• John Warhurst is Professor of Political Science at the Australian National University in Canberra and a Director of the lay Catholic peak organisation, the Council of Australasian Catholics.